YouGov has released the results of their September General Election Voter Intention Poll, which has revealed that For Britain are set to win the general election, with 23 seats – an increase of 6 since the last general election.
The National Democrats are predicted to face a rise in their total seat count as well, following behind For Britain in second place, with a total of 18 seats.
The newly registered National party are predicted to receive 7 seats in the Commons, followed by the Unionists who YouGov expect to drop a seat, going down to 6 total Members of Parliament.
How are these results calculated?
This set of results is the first of its kind to be made using a new complex prediction algorithm manufactured by SB Group, which compiles electoral data from the last two years across polling results and general election results.
The algorithm compares who has voted in the most recent polls, to who has voted in previous polls, and what the outcomes of the elections have been compared to those previous polls, and weighs the results against that.
It makes pure estimations first without looking at the most recent poll, then uses the data from that to refine its choices.
The algorithm also takes into account who is leading each party, if they’ve won elections before, what the voter distribution was during those elections, and more.
To help more accurately represent party campaigning efforts, it also takes into account party membership to adjust how well a parties campaign has been going.
